I gave insufficient support for my last statement, so I should correct this by illustrating the point in each case:
The math book: Eliezer hadn’t seen that particular false claim in the past, so he took it into account sufficiently to try to prove its falsity, rather than just assuming it.
Judea Pearl: a similar case.
Daniel Dennett: Dennett contradicted a previous opinion, so Eliezer was surprised and wanted to know the reasons. But Eliezer did not indicate any shift whatsoever in his own opinion. He does not indicate, for example, that he now thinks that there is a 40% chance that there will not be human level AI in the next hundred years, or anything like this. As far as we can tell, he is still convinced that there is a high chance that it is definitely coming soon. He would like to know Dennett’s reasons, but only so as to see where Dennett went wrong.
Pinker: again, this contradicts a previous opinion of Eliezer, so he does not shift his opinion. The particular way in which he changes his opinion about Pinker, relative to how he changed his opinion about Dennett, is not really relevant. In both cases, Eliezer’s opinions about the matter at hand do not change.
Aumann: again, Eliezer refuses to change his opinion in the slightest, not even assigning a 0.001% chance that Aumann is right and he is wrong.
Many-Worlds: Eliezer has a determined opinion on this matter, and so it does not matter to him how expert some physicist might be in physics who disagrees with him.
Nick Bostrom: Here Eliezer came close to modifying his opinion, but to the degree that he continued to claim that it was necessary to directly program Friendliness, again, he did not do so. It does seem, though, that if anything can modify Eliezer’s already formed opinions, it would be the influence of such a personal acquaintance.
Thrun: a mathematical formula that Eliezer hadn’t previously considered, so he was willing to change his mind.
Roger Schank: Eliezer simply dismisses him as disagreeing with one of his fixed opinions.
Conclusion: once Eliezer has made up his mind, his mind is made up, and cannot be changed or modified to any degree whatsoever by the influence of someone else’s opinion, no matter how expert the person may be.
I gave insufficient support for my last statement, so I should correct this by illustrating the point in each case:
The math book: Eliezer hadn’t seen that particular false claim in the past, so he took it into account sufficiently to try to prove its falsity, rather than just assuming it.
Judea Pearl: a similar case.
Daniel Dennett: Dennett contradicted a previous opinion, so Eliezer was surprised and wanted to know the reasons. But Eliezer did not indicate any shift whatsoever in his own opinion. He does not indicate, for example, that he now thinks that there is a 40% chance that there will not be human level AI in the next hundred years, or anything like this. As far as we can tell, he is still convinced that there is a high chance that it is definitely coming soon. He would like to know Dennett’s reasons, but only so as to see where Dennett went wrong.
Pinker: again, this contradicts a previous opinion of Eliezer, so he does not shift his opinion. The particular way in which he changes his opinion about Pinker, relative to how he changed his opinion about Dennett, is not really relevant. In both cases, Eliezer’s opinions about the matter at hand do not change.
Aumann: again, Eliezer refuses to change his opinion in the slightest, not even assigning a 0.001% chance that Aumann is right and he is wrong.
Many-Worlds: Eliezer has a determined opinion on this matter, and so it does not matter to him how expert some physicist might be in physics who disagrees with him.
Nick Bostrom: Here Eliezer came close to modifying his opinion, but to the degree that he continued to claim that it was necessary to directly program Friendliness, again, he did not do so. It does seem, though, that if anything can modify Eliezer’s already formed opinions, it would be the influence of such a personal acquaintance.
Thrun: a mathematical formula that Eliezer hadn’t previously considered, so he was willing to change his mind.
Roger Schank: Eliezer simply dismisses him as disagreeing with one of his fixed opinions.
Conclusion: once Eliezer has made up his mind, his mind is made up, and cannot be changed or modified to any degree whatsoever by the influence of someone else’s opinion, no matter how expert the person may be.