There’s a big difference between two-way disagreements and one-way disagreements. In two-way disagreements, people interact but are unable to come to agreement. Eliezer’s interaction with Nick Bostrom might be an example of this; it’s not clear what the time scale was but it sounds like they may have left off, each respecting the other but unable to come to agreement on their question. However it sounds like in the aftermath their positions became very close.
One-way disagreements are where you read or hear that someone said something that seems wrong to you, and you have to decide what to do. Theoretically, and modulo some assumptions that not everyone accepts, Aumann’s theorem says that two-way disagreements are impossible for rational, honest truth-seekers. However one-way disagreements are not affected by this result. Clearly you would not want to just accept everything you read or hear that someone said, so one-way disagreements are perfectly valid on theoretical grounds. The practical question is when to disagree.
Eliezer describes a number of cases where experts made claims near to their fields of expertise, but he disagreed with them. Although there are a couple of instances where his initial disagreement was at least partially wrong, in each case he is able to go back and trump the other person by improving their result in a manner they did not foresee. Eliezer FTW.
I don’t think most people could apply Eliezer’s strategy for one-way disagreements successfully. I don’t see it as a particularly useful model. Most people, most of the time will probably do better to believe experts when they make claims in their areas of expertise.
Two-way disagreements are more interesting to me, because they so often violate Aumann’s theorem. Robin and Eliezer often seem to dance around certain matters where they are not perhaps 100% in agreement, but I seldom see the issue fully joined. I have to admit that I often veer off when I find myself approaching open disagreement with someone I respect, falling back into cautious bepuzzlement. I am afraid that this may be an evasion of the reality of mutual disagreement.
There’s a big difference between two-way disagreements and one-way disagreements. In two-way disagreements, people interact but are unable to come to agreement. Eliezer’s interaction with Nick Bostrom might be an example of this; it’s not clear what the time scale was but it sounds like they may have left off, each respecting the other but unable to come to agreement on their question. However it sounds like in the aftermath their positions became very close.
One-way disagreements are where you read or hear that someone said something that seems wrong to you, and you have to decide what to do. Theoretically, and modulo some assumptions that not everyone accepts, Aumann’s theorem says that two-way disagreements are impossible for rational, honest truth-seekers. However one-way disagreements are not affected by this result. Clearly you would not want to just accept everything you read or hear that someone said, so one-way disagreements are perfectly valid on theoretical grounds. The practical question is when to disagree.
Eliezer describes a number of cases where experts made claims near to their fields of expertise, but he disagreed with them. Although there are a couple of instances where his initial disagreement was at least partially wrong, in each case he is able to go back and trump the other person by improving their result in a manner they did not foresee. Eliezer FTW.
I don’t think most people could apply Eliezer’s strategy for one-way disagreements successfully. I don’t see it as a particularly useful model. Most people, most of the time will probably do better to believe experts when they make claims in their areas of expertise.
Two-way disagreements are more interesting to me, because they so often violate Aumann’s theorem. Robin and Eliezer often seem to dance around certain matters where they are not perhaps 100% in agreement, but I seldom see the issue fully joined. I have to admit that I often veer off when I find myself approaching open disagreement with someone I respect, falling back into cautious bepuzzlement. I am afraid that this may be an evasion of the reality of mutual disagreement.