Another possible formulation is if E is a function of expected proportion of score. People seem to be interested in relative status and also this would also stop the crazy feedback loop and possible unintuitive things like working harder when someone else is working with you than you do on your own (if they are a lot better at getting score than you and so increase your expected score, even taking a share).
I still favour empirical testing to see how people actually behave.
So lets start with the most convincing evidence that our theories are correct and work our way backwards to what might help us achieve that proof.
Best proof: There are many “real world” charities and businesses with the our significantly better structure we developed and they are out-competing (charitable outcome and profit, respectively) orgs with more conventional structures. Orgs with more conventional structures are forced to adopt the ideal structure to survive. This is likely to take many millions and require some changes to the law (charities having an elected board of directors, is baked into UK law I think). So how do we bootstrap to that? I suppose they could still fail if the “better” organisations interacted in some bad way with each other.
The idea is significantly viral (a better way of organising! minimising corruption!) that it will take off on its own if it gets even a modicum of proof in the real world. Sufficient proof might be something like: create multiple organisations with the same purpose, with different control mechanisms. Create them where people’s work is cheaper for the low millions? Charitable organisations seem like the best bet here. They would have the same external economy and influences as organisations in the developed world. It would also be somewhat blind, there would not be the issue of the people involved with the organisation believing it was better and therefore working harder.
We would need to get some wealthy backers for this plan. They would probably want to see how our better type of organisation worked on a day to day at scale, so we would need one example of it at least. This I suggest would best be the Centre for Organisational Experiments that I suggested earlier. It would need a score of some variety, this would be how well the people funding it thought that it was experimenting and raising awareness of organisational experimentation. The sorts of things it might do: Funding theoretical examinations and occasionally the changing control structure and observing its own productivity. Depending on the enthusiasm of the people working there, this could be done for a 40-200k or so? You probably need at least one person working on it full time and then a number of other expenses, servers and the like. Motivation would not be entirely selfish, people would need to want to participate for the love of the idea. However, the more money involved the purer the experiment.
The experimental game. What this post was about. The biggest costs would probably be promotion and design of a compelling game. The more people that play, the larger scale organisations that can be tested. It also helps for funding for later experiments. If I code it all in my spare time and attempt to market it myself I could probably do it, although it would take a lot of time. I’d need to iterate through different game designs as well.
My budget is 1K now and about 50 a month. Ideally I want to be able to treat this as an expensive hobby. at least to start with.
I am in favour of theory. It will allow us to get better starting off points to experiment with. And then we can refine our theories.
So lets start with the most convincing evidence that our theories are correct and work our way backwards to what might help us achieve that proof.
Why not search for the evidence which falsifies our theories, and change our theories to the one with the strongest evidence?
My reference proposal would be a retail coffee shop, wherein the owners would receive a smaller percentage of ‘net profits’ than traditional, and the employees would be paid a minimum base rate (complying with minimum wage regulations), plus a prorated part of a significant percentage of the net profit of the business. Rather than try to prorate based on production, I was expecting to use a proxy such as ‘hours worked’.
Hypothesis: A business which quarterly distributes a portion of its net profits back to all employees will have higher net profits than a control.
Proposed experimental evidence: Gather the most reliable information about the expected performance of a ‘traditional’ business, and create the experimental business instead. Compare the actual results with the traditional estimate. This can also be done by projecting the performance of an existing traditional business model and changing the model.
Potential outcomes: Null: Net profit does not vary with portion of profits distributed to employees
Counter: Net profit diminishes with increasing portion of profits distributed to employees.
Variant: Net profit varies in a non-simple manner with portion of profits distributed to employees.
Hypothesis: Net profit increases with portion of profits distributed to employees.
(In all cases, I’m counting the base wages as an expense and a reduction to profit, but the profit redistributed remains in the profit column; this is probably wrong by accounting standards. As a result, it is expected that there is some point where increasing profit-sharing increases net profit while decreasing stockholder returns.)
Not considered: Distributing an amount of money which is a strictly increasing nonlinear function of net profit.
I’ve been researching this while making a website to do with experimenting with organizations to reduce corruption in them. I came across this reference. From the way it was quoted it suggested that profit sharing wasn’t effective, but random checking with a very low punishment pay if insufficient effort was. I’ve not read it, but thought you might find it interesting. It is going on my pile of things to read.
Why not search for the evidence which falsifies our theories, and change our theories to the one with tIghe strongest evidence?
How much money do you have to experiment with? If it is not very large, we have to consider the ability of whatever experiments we do to enable us to raise money for more experiments.
About 20% of small businesses fail in the first year, what happens if our coffee shop, for some reason, is one of them? Just having a better organisational structure does not mean it will be free of accidents or illnesses. And I am not worried about the loss of money, but that a single business failing or succeeding won’t allow us to falsify a hypothesis. A small business with a better business structure may only have a 10% chance of failing but we would need more trials to tease out the confounding variables (of which there are many).
I would also need to look into the history of cooperatively owned and other profit sharing businesses, but as they have not taken over the world I doubt they are strictly better than non-profit sharing businesses.
What I meant by take over the world is: Collectively be successful and displace other organisation types. Out-compete. Not literally take over the world.
Hmm. There are probably at least 3 things involved in the low score low effort issue.
1). Energy returned on energy invested. Effort is energy, if you can’t make appreciably more energy (or things that can be converted into energy) by expending your energy for the organisation, you may as well save your energy.
2). Other opportunities: In the real world there is often other ways of getting score/energy so you should use your effort to do those rather than things with a poor pay off.
3) Other players in different organisations: Even if the game is the only opportunity available to you, you still may be competing against people playing different games with different payoffs. Take buying a house for example (the biggest relative pricing issue people generally face), even if you are a dictator in an organisation with a small score you may still not be able to buy a house if you are competing in the same market as communist in an organisation with a very large score. So the dictator might not be motivated to expend all his effort if it still can’t get his dream house.
Ignoring EROEI, perhaps proportion of total score (of every player) might be better as the input. This brings back the difficulties of the feedback loop though.
I’ll think about different testing methods over dinner.
I was thinking about modeling effort as negative utility, and reward as positive utility, but that only works to model rational agents that share those assumptions.
Another possible formulation is if E is a function of expected proportion of score. People seem to be interested in relative status and also this would also stop the crazy feedback loop and possible unintuitive things like working harder when someone else is working with you than you do on your own (if they are a lot better at getting score than you and so increase your expected score, even taking a share).
I still favour empirical testing to see how people actually behave.
I tried, and failed, to account for my observation that if rewards are independent of effort, very low effort is expended.
How would you perform empirical testing with various budgets?
So lets start with the most convincing evidence that our theories are correct and work our way backwards to what might help us achieve that proof.
Best proof: There are many “real world” charities and businesses with the our significantly better structure we developed and they are out-competing (charitable outcome and profit, respectively) orgs with more conventional structures. Orgs with more conventional structures are forced to adopt the ideal structure to survive. This is likely to take many millions and require some changes to the law (charities having an elected board of directors, is baked into UK law I think). So how do we bootstrap to that? I suppose they could still fail if the “better” organisations interacted in some bad way with each other.
The idea is significantly viral (a better way of organising! minimising corruption!) that it will take off on its own if it gets even a modicum of proof in the real world. Sufficient proof might be something like: create multiple organisations with the same purpose, with different control mechanisms. Create them where people’s work is cheaper for the low millions? Charitable organisations seem like the best bet here. They would have the same external economy and influences as organisations in the developed world. It would also be somewhat blind, there would not be the issue of the people involved with the organisation believing it was better and therefore working harder.
We would need to get some wealthy backers for this plan. They would probably want to see how our better type of organisation worked on a day to day at scale, so we would need one example of it at least. This I suggest would best be the Centre for Organisational Experiments that I suggested earlier. It would need a score of some variety, this would be how well the people funding it thought that it was experimenting and raising awareness of organisational experimentation. The sorts of things it might do: Funding theoretical examinations and occasionally the changing control structure and observing its own productivity. Depending on the enthusiasm of the people working there, this could be done for a 40-200k or so? You probably need at least one person working on it full time and then a number of other expenses, servers and the like. Motivation would not be entirely selfish, people would need to want to participate for the love of the idea. However, the more money involved the purer the experiment.
The experimental game. What this post was about. The biggest costs would probably be promotion and design of a compelling game. The more people that play, the larger scale organisations that can be tested. It also helps for funding for later experiments. If I code it all in my spare time and attempt to market it myself I could probably do it, although it would take a lot of time. I’d need to iterate through different game designs as well.
My budget is 1K now and about 50 a month. Ideally I want to be able to treat this as an expensive hobby. at least to start with.
I am in favour of theory. It will allow us to get better starting off points to experiment with. And then we can refine our theories.
Why not search for the evidence which falsifies our theories, and change our theories to the one with the strongest evidence?
My reference proposal would be a retail coffee shop, wherein the owners would receive a smaller percentage of ‘net profits’ than traditional, and the employees would be paid a minimum base rate (complying with minimum wage regulations), plus a prorated part of a significant percentage of the net profit of the business. Rather than try to prorate based on production, I was expecting to use a proxy such as ‘hours worked’.
Hypothesis: A business which quarterly distributes a portion of its net profits back to all employees will have higher net profits than a control.
Proposed experimental evidence: Gather the most reliable information about the expected performance of a ‘traditional’ business, and create the experimental business instead. Compare the actual results with the traditional estimate. This can also be done by projecting the performance of an existing traditional business model and changing the model.
Potential outcomes:
Null: Net profit does not vary with portion of profits distributed to employees Counter: Net profit diminishes with increasing portion of profits distributed to employees. Variant: Net profit varies in a non-simple manner with portion of profits distributed to employees. Hypothesis: Net profit increases with portion of profits distributed to employees.
(In all cases, I’m counting the base wages as an expense and a reduction to profit, but the profit redistributed remains in the profit column; this is probably wrong by accounting standards. As a result, it is expected that there is some point where increasing profit-sharing increases net profit while decreasing stockholder returns.)
Not considered: Distributing an amount of money which is a strictly increasing nonlinear function of net profit.
I’ve been researching this while making a website to do with experimenting with organizations to reduce corruption in them. I came across this reference. From the way it was quoted it suggested that profit sharing wasn’t effective, but random checking with a very low punishment pay if insufficient effort was. I’ve not read it, but thought you might find it interesting. It is going on my pile of things to read.
How much money do you have to experiment with? If it is not very large, we have to consider the ability of whatever experiments we do to enable us to raise money for more experiments.
About 20% of small businesses fail in the first year, what happens if our coffee shop, for some reason, is one of them? Just having a better organisational structure does not mean it will be free of accidents or illnesses. And I am not worried about the loss of money, but that a single business failing or succeeding won’t allow us to falsify a hypothesis. A small business with a better business structure may only have a 10% chance of failing but we would need more trials to tease out the confounding variables (of which there are many).
I would also need to look into the history of cooperatively owned and other profit sharing businesses, but as they have not taken over the world I doubt they are strictly better than non-profit sharing businesses.
“better” can mean a lot of things, only one of which is “more likely to take over the world”.
What I meant by take over the world is: Collectively be successful and displace other organisation types. Out-compete. Not literally take over the world.
Hmm. There are probably at least 3 things involved in the low score low effort issue.
1). Energy returned on energy invested. Effort is energy, if you can’t make appreciably more energy (or things that can be converted into energy) by expending your energy for the organisation, you may as well save your energy.
2). Other opportunities: In the real world there is often other ways of getting score/energy so you should use your effort to do those rather than things with a poor pay off.
3) Other players in different organisations: Even if the game is the only opportunity available to you, you still may be competing against people playing different games with different payoffs. Take buying a house for example (the biggest relative pricing issue people generally face), even if you are a dictator in an organisation with a small score you may still not be able to buy a house if you are competing in the same market as communist in an organisation with a very large score. So the dictator might not be motivated to expend all his effort if it still can’t get his dream house.
Ignoring EROEI, perhaps proportion of total score (of every player) might be better as the input. This brings back the difficulties of the feedback loop though.
I’ll think about different testing methods over dinner.
I was thinking about modeling effort as negative utility, and reward as positive utility, but that only works to model rational agents that share those assumptions.