Would you mind commenting a bit more on what you think the likelihoods of the various possibilities are? In particular, what do you think the likelihood of !1 && !2 && !3 is?
I don’t feel like I have any special knowledge, and don’t want to put where my gut points now down in writing.
My hedging point is that I don’t think that number is very relevant, though: it seems like you should condition on no x-risks and not being in the !1 && !2 && !3 state, because both of those states are ones where the actions you take now don’t meaningfully impact your position, relative to their impact in the other alternative.
But there are strong counterarguments to that: you might think that you can nudge the x-risk number, or that it matters to you how soon a positive singularity happens, or so on.
The opportunity cost to me saving for retirement is spending more time working on startups and increasing my knowledge.
Most retirement funds allow you to pull it out early with a minor penalty—I think it’s 10%? If you have access to matching funds, I think you could put money into a retirement fund, get the match, and then pull it out and be ahead. You would have to look at the particulars of your match and fund, though.
You’re welcome!
I don’t feel like I have any special knowledge, and don’t want to put where my gut points now down in writing.
My hedging point is that I don’t think that number is very relevant, though: it seems like you should condition on no x-risks and not being in the !1 && !2 && !3 state, because both of those states are ones where the actions you take now don’t meaningfully impact your position, relative to their impact in the other alternative.
But there are strong counterarguments to that: you might think that you can nudge the x-risk number, or that it matters to you how soon a positive singularity happens, or so on.
Most retirement funds allow you to pull it out early with a minor penalty—I think it’s 10%? If you have access to matching funds, I think you could put money into a retirement fund, get the match, and then pull it out and be ahead. You would have to look at the particulars of your match and fund, though.