Hypothesis: This may be not just people being ignorant about probability. This may be people being unconsciously good at game theory. If the boy could be motivated with cross-entropy-loss worth of cookies, it would be another thing. If he can simply get the microphone and yell a number that would be enough for inciting the intended action but low enough to have practically no accountability—it may make more sense for society to actively make the “crying wolf” more binary. It doesn’t penalise predication error, but yelling stuff into the microphone.
Hypothesis: This may be not just people being ignorant about probability. This may be people being unconsciously good at game theory. If the boy could be motivated with cross-entropy-loss worth of cookies, it would be another thing. If he can simply get the microphone and yell a number that would be enough for inciting the intended action but low enough to have practically no accountability—it may make more sense for society to actively make the “crying wolf” more binary. It doesn’t penalise predication error, but yelling stuff into the microphone.