“I didn’t say there was a wolf!” cried the boy. “I was estimating the probability at low, but high enough. A false alarm is much less costly than a missed detection when it comes to dying! The expected value is good!”
Into normie language and should be fine.
However it’s very hard to communicate nuance at scale. I have no idea how to solve that.
Why isn’t the moral of the story “If you think statistically, take into account that most other people don’t and optimize accordingly?”
“Don’t be a straw vulcan”.
I wish I could find some advice on how to do that, but it’s really hard to Google.
Explaining more to align understanding.
Just translate this:
“I didn’t say there was a wolf!” cried the boy. “I was estimating the probability at low, but high enough. A false alarm is much less costly than a missed detection when it comes to dying! The expected value is good!”
Into normie language and should be fine.
However it’s very hard to communicate nuance at scale. I have no idea how to solve that.