My timelines were not 2026. In fact, I made bets against doomers 2-3 years ago, one will resolve by next year.
I agree iterative improvements are significant. This falls under “naive extrapolation of scaling laws”.
By nanotech I mean something akin to drexlerian nanotech or something similarly transformative in the vicinity. I think it is plausible that a true ASI will be able to make rapid progress (perhaps on the order of a few years or a decade) on nanotech.
I suspect that people that don’t take this as a serious possibility haven’t really thought through what AGI/ASI means + what the limits and drivers of science and tech really are; I suspect they are simply falling prey to status-quo bias.
My timelines were not 2026. In fact, I made bets against doomers 2-3 years ago, one will resolve by next year.
I agree iterative improvements are significant. This falls under “naive extrapolation of scaling laws”.
By nanotech I mean something akin to drexlerian nanotech or something similarly transformative in the vicinity. I think it is plausible that a true ASI will be able to make rapid progress (perhaps on the order of a few years or a decade) on nanotech. I suspect that people that don’t take this as a serious possibility haven’t really thought through what AGI/ASI means + what the limits and drivers of science and tech really are; I suspect they are simply falling prey to status-quo bias.