That’s why I said: “In expectation”, “win or lose”
That the coinflip came out one way rather than another doesnt prove the guy had actual inside knowledge. He bought a large part of the shares at crazy odds because his market impact moved the price so much.
But yes, he could be a sharp in sheeps clothings. I doubt it but who knows. EDIT: I calculated the implied private odds for a rational Kelly bettor that this guy would have to have. Suffice to say these private odds seem unrealistic for election betting.
Point is that the winners contribute epistemics and the losers contribute money. The real winner is society [if the questions are about socially-relevant topics].
That’s why I said: “In expectation”, “win or lose”
That the coinflip came out one way rather than another doesnt prove the guy had actual inside knowledge. He bought a large part of the shares at crazy odds because his market impact moved the price so much.
But yes, he could be a sharp in sheeps clothings. I doubt it but who knows. EDIT: I calculated the implied private odds for a rational Kelly bettor that this guy would have to have. Suffice to say these private odds seem unrealistic for election betting.
Point is that the winners contribute epistemics and the losers contribute money. The real winner is society [if the questions are about socially-relevant topics].