A theoretical explanation for the decrease in cases at the same time as the decrease in deaths would be that perhaps most of the early cases were in the elderly/immuno-compromised, while later cases were in young healthy people. I’m not sure there’s a good reason to believe that this happened in Shanghai though, when it hasn’t had any affect on the cases vs deaths curves elsewhere.
In theory, a place could have a situation where the only testing was happening to confirm already symptomatic patients, so small numbers, but high fatality rate, as all the mild cases gonindetected. Then it moves, over a few weeks, to a mass testing regime, resulting in a lot more tests performed, finding a lot more cases, but the actual peak in cases/population was a few weeks ago.
A theoretical explanation for the decrease in cases at the same time as the decrease in deaths would be that perhaps most of the early cases were in the elderly/immuno-compromised, while later cases were in young healthy people. I’m not sure there’s a good reason to believe that this happened in Shanghai though, when it hasn’t had any affect on the cases vs deaths curves elsewhere.
In theory, a place could have a situation where the only testing was happening to confirm already symptomatic patients, so small numbers, but high fatality rate, as all the mild cases gonindetected. Then it moves, over a few weeks, to a mass testing regime, resulting in a lot more tests performed, finding a lot more cases, but the actual peak in cases/population was a few weeks ago.