There is another, however—namely: what happens if we map that distribution of policies, and of outcomes, to the current situation?
Suppose we give Russia the “Germany & Japan in WWII” treatment. We may hope to thereby ensure that Russia ends up as did Germany and Japan. Fine and well.
But the obvious question is: if Russia is the new Germany/Japan, then who is the new Russia? (Or, more properly, the new Soviet Union?)
If such a player exists, then to what extent will the game proceed as it did before, with all the old roles mapped onto the new players?
But the obvious question is: if Russia is the new Germany/Japan, then who is the new Russia?
A hypothetical country that attacked Ukraine together with Russia, but later got backstabbed by Russia, then with NATO support helped defeat Russia, got control over a part of Russian territory + a part of Ukraine territory + for some weird reason also a part of Finland territory, then three years later developed its own nukes and decided that NATO is actually its true enemy (but also everyone else)...
Dunno, does Lukashenko have any ambitions of this kind?
Not that I’m particularly fluent in history or geopolitics, but I’d image the natural course of events would have Russia’s old role taken up by the other communist superpower in the world. It’d be super strange if Russia wound up being a member of NATO, wouldn’t it?
I’m also not necessarily advocating for the full “Germany & Japan in WWII” treatment (nor am I advocating against it, just using it to think about what happens when wars end).
Rather, I’m advocating for thinking of Russia as villains only so long as they are actually playing the role, as they currently are. If they stop being bad guys, it’d be nice to have a coordination mechanism to stop treating them like bad guys.
That is one perspective, yes.
There is another, however—namely: what happens if we map that distribution of policies, and of outcomes, to the current situation?
Suppose we give Russia the “Germany & Japan in WWII” treatment. We may hope to thereby ensure that Russia ends up as did Germany and Japan. Fine and well.
But the obvious question is: if Russia is the new Germany/Japan, then who is the new Russia? (Or, more properly, the new Soviet Union?)
If such a player exists, then to what extent will the game proceed as it did before, with all the old roles mapped onto the new players?
A hypothetical country that attacked Ukraine together with Russia, but later got backstabbed by Russia, then with NATO support helped defeat Russia, got control over a part of Russian territory + a part of Ukraine territory + for some weird reason also a part of Finland territory, then three years later developed its own nukes and decided that NATO is actually its true enemy (but also everyone else)...
Dunno, does Lukashenko have any ambitions of this kind?
Not that I’m particularly fluent in history or geopolitics, but I’d image the natural course of events would have Russia’s old role taken up by the other communist superpower in the world. It’d be super strange if Russia wound up being a member of NATO, wouldn’t it?
I’m also not necessarily advocating for the full “Germany & Japan in WWII” treatment (nor am I advocating against it, just using it to think about what happens when wars end).
Rather, I’m advocating for thinking of Russia as villains only so long as they are actually playing the role, as they currently are. If they stop being bad guys, it’d be nice to have a coordination mechanism to stop treating them like bad guys.
Granted, they have to stop being bad guys first, but sometimes defeat can mean friendship!