first $500 almost certainly has greater marginal utility than the second, and possibly more than the next 1,999 put together.
Sure, if they’re to starve (or freeze to death) within the month if not for this money, then certainly: accepting the bet would then become a 85% chance of death vs a 15% chance at a million. And rejecting a 85% chance of death is reasonable, even in the face of a 15% chance at a million.
But relatively very few of the people offered the choice would really be so much in need. There’s no point in finding ways to excuse simple irrationality by bringing in extreme scenarios that would justify it in some implausible cases....
Simple irrationality would be taking the implausible scenario both seriously and at face value. A priori, the likelihood of someone honestly offering you money for nothing is extremely low, as is the likelihood that they even have a million dollars to give away. If you don’t take the scenario seriously, it’s just a case of guessing the teacher’s password. If you do take it seriously, it would not be rational in most contexts take the offer at face value, in which case “$500 now” has about as a good an expected pay-off as any, and at least provides guaranteed evidence of the offer’s legitimacy.
At this point you’re just using pedantry to dismiss the very concept of hypothetical questions. The question is simple: What option you would take with the mentioned choices at hand as a given situation: Whether you’d prefer the certainty of 500 dollars or a 15% chance at 1 million.
As simple as that. You really don’t have to estimate how unlikely you’re to be given this option in reality. That’s why it’s called a “hypothetical” question.
And the question is likewise not about what you would do if you were in danger of starving to death. Just what you would do. You’re free to offer a conditional response (e.g. “I’d choose the 15% chance at a million, except if I was dead broke and in danger of immediate starvation), but just claiming that all possible responses are equally valid, regardless of conditions, just won’t fly.
If you’re going to tap out, fair enough, but don’t do it after a three paragraph response. That’s just a chickenshit way of trying to have the last word.
Sure, if they’re to starve (or freeze to death) within the month if not for this money, then certainly: accepting the bet would then become a 85% chance of death vs a 15% chance at a million. And rejecting a 85% chance of death is reasonable, even in the face of a 15% chance at a million.
But relatively very few of the people offered the choice would really be so much in need. There’s no point in finding ways to excuse simple irrationality by bringing in extreme scenarios that would justify it in some implausible cases....
Simple irrationality would be taking the implausible scenario both seriously and at face value. A priori, the likelihood of someone honestly offering you money for nothing is extremely low, as is the likelihood that they even have a million dollars to give away. If you don’t take the scenario seriously, it’s just a case of guessing the teacher’s password. If you do take it seriously, it would not be rational in most contexts take the offer at face value, in which case “$500 now” has about as a good an expected pay-off as any, and at least provides guaranteed evidence of the offer’s legitimacy.
At this point you’re just using pedantry to dismiss the very concept of hypothetical questions. The question is simple: What option you would take with the mentioned choices at hand as a given situation: Whether you’d prefer the certainty of 500 dollars or a 15% chance at 1 million.
As simple as that. You really don’t have to estimate how unlikely you’re to be given this option in reality. That’s why it’s called a “hypothetical” question.
And the question is likewise not about what you would do if you were in danger of starving to death. Just what you would do. You’re free to offer a conditional response (e.g. “I’d choose the 15% chance at a million, except if I was dead broke and in danger of immediate starvation), but just claiming that all possible responses are equally valid, regardless of conditions, just won’t fly.
I’m tapping out.
If you’re going to tap out, fair enough, but don’t do it after a three paragraph response. That’s just a chickenshit way of trying to have the last word.