Great critique! I’ve updated the post to show the purpose of this frame. We already have Bayesian updating for achieving beliefs to be more likely true. This framing of Proving Too Much is about differentiating useful reasons and those that claim”This reason leads to truth 100% of the time”.
There are lots of beliefs that people hold with 100% confidence for only 1 reason, and this is simply a way of jarring them out of that confidence. Encountering heuristics that account for less than 100% confidence will be covered in Finding Cruxes.
Great critique! I’ve updated the post to show the purpose of this frame. We already have Bayesian updating for achieving beliefs to be more likely true. This framing of Proving Too Much is about differentiating useful reasons and those that claim”This reason leads to truth 100% of the time”.
There are lots of beliefs that people hold with 100% confidence for only 1 reason, and this is simply a way of jarring them out of that confidence. Encountering heuristics that account for less than 100% confidence will be covered in Finding Cruxes.