I agree. In the first example, it’s because if our probability distribution only encompasses two categories, any increase in one is a decrease in the other. In the second example, it’s because the ex-super-goth’s hypothesis space includes all sorts of relationships between number of black things and number of nonblack things—their preconceptions about the world are different, rather than you just stipulating that they sample non-black things.
I agree. In the first example, it’s because if our probability distribution only encompasses two categories, any increase in one is a decrease in the other. In the second example, it’s because the ex-super-goth’s hypothesis space includes all sorts of relationships between number of black things and number of nonblack things—their preconceptions about the world are different, rather than you just stipulating that they sample non-black things.