I don’t think the problem with China’s COVID policy is disregard for granularity. Zero COVID used to be a good strategy but now it doesn’t. The problem isn’t that the zero-COVID strategy lacks granularity but that a strategic change would be necessary given the higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant.
That strategic change doesn’t happen because of the sunk cost bias and because powerful people have their careers invested in the strategy. I don’t think the strategic change doesn’t happen because China’s leadership believes that changing the strategy would go against communist ideals.
Again, as I mentioned in my earlier response, ideals don’t have anything to do with the claim. The claim is that countries that call themselves communist make large policy errors more frequently due to heavy-handed policies. The thing you label yourself with provides some information. That information might be contrary to what you want to portray (as in the case of countries with “democratic” in their name), but it’s valid Bayesian information nevertheless.
Changing policy based on different circumstances is certainly part of granularity. It’s granularity with respect to time and circumstance.
Ah well, hoped to bring you over, but I’ll agree to disagree.
I see only one big policy error. If you argue that China frequently made policy errors in the last year, what errors do you see besides COVID-19 policy?
I think this claim has aged pretty well. Do you still disagree with this statement?
I don’t think the problem with China’s COVID policy is disregard for granularity. Zero COVID used to be a good strategy but now it doesn’t. The problem isn’t that the zero-COVID strategy lacks granularity but that a strategic change would be necessary given the higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant.
That strategic change doesn’t happen because of the sunk cost bias and because powerful people have their careers invested in the strategy. I don’t think the strategic change doesn’t happen because China’s leadership believes that changing the strategy would go against communist ideals.
Again, as I mentioned in my earlier response, ideals don’t have anything to do with the claim. The claim is that countries that call themselves communist make large policy errors more frequently due to heavy-handed policies. The thing you label yourself with provides some information. That information might be contrary to what you want to portray (as in the case of countries with “democratic” in their name), but it’s valid Bayesian information nevertheless.
Changing policy based on different circumstances is certainly part of granularity. It’s granularity with respect to time and circumstance.
Ah well, hoped to bring you over, but I’ll agree to disagree.
I see only one big policy error. If you argue that China frequently made policy errors in the last year, what errors do you see besides COVID-19 policy?