This would make sense if China was a black box of which we only knew the official name.
ETA: The point being that we have tons and tons of much more relevant evidence on their behavior than what they chose to call themselves 100 years ago.
When you have a government that identifies as Communist, that’s a threat that needs to be taken seriously. The evidence I’ve looked at this threat to evaluate this threat is anecdotal…
It’s a perfectly reasonable jumping off point to get into the specifics. I agree that if you have a more specific reference class, you should use it (I’ve made that point myself before, “holding your IQ test results in your hand and refusing to read it because ‘The average is 100, so I probably got 100’”).
This would make sense if China was a black box of which we only knew the official name.
ETA: The point being that we have tons and tons of much more relevant evidence on their behavior than what they chose to call themselves 100 years ago.
Exactly, which is why I looked further into it:
It’s a perfectly reasonable jumping off point to get into the specifics. I agree that if you have a more specific reference class, you should use it (I’ve made that point myself before, “holding your IQ test results in your hand and refusing to read it because ‘The average is 100, so I probably got 100’”).