One theory has a track record of prediction, and what is being asked for is a prediction, so at first glance I would choose that one. But the explanation based-one is built on more data.
But it is neither prediction nor explanation that makes things happen in the real world, but causality. So I would look in to the two theories and pick the one that looks to have identified a real cause instead of simply identifying a statistical pattern in the data.
One theory has a track record of prediction, and what is being asked for is a prediction, so at first glance I would choose that one. But the explanation based-one is built on more data.
But it is neither prediction nor explanation that makes things happen in the real world, but causality. So I would look in to the two theories and pick the one that looks to have identified a real cause instead of simply identifying a statistical pattern in the data.