Let’s suppose, purely for the sake of argument of course, that the scientists are superrational.
The first scientist chose the most probable theory given the 10 experiments. If the predictions are 100% certain then it will still be the most probable after 10 more successful experiments. So, since the second scientist chose a different theory, there is uncertainty and the other theory assigned an even higher probability to these outcomes.
In reality people are bad at assessing priors (hindsight bias), leading to overfitting. But these scientists are assumed to have assessed the priors correctly, and given this assumption you should believe the second explanation.
Of course, given more realistic scientists, overfitting may be likely.
Let’s suppose, purely for the sake of argument of course, that the scientists are superrational.
The first scientist chose the most probable theory given the 10 experiments. If the predictions are 100% certain then it will still be the most probable after 10 more successful experiments. So, since the second scientist chose a different theory, there is uncertainty and the other theory assigned an even higher probability to these outcomes.
In reality people are bad at assessing priors (hindsight bias), leading to overfitting. But these scientists are assumed to have assessed the priors correctly, and given this assumption you should believe the second explanation.
Of course, given more realistic scientists, overfitting may be likely.