I largely agree that ASI will follow AGI faster, but with a couple caveats.
The road from AGI to superintelligence will very likely be fairly continuous. You could slap the term “superintelligence” almost wherever you want after it passes human level.
I do see some reasons that the road will go a little slower than we might think. Scaling laws are logarithmic; making more and better chips requires physical technology that the AGI can help with but can’t do until it gets better with robotics, possibly including new hardware (although humanoid robotics will be close to adequate for most things by then, with new control networks rapidly trained by the AGI).
If the architecture is similar to current LLMs, it’s enough like human thought that I expect the progression to remain logarithmic; you’re still using the same clumsy basic algorithm of using your knowledge to come up with ideas, then going through long chains of thought and ultimately experiments to test the validity of different ideas.
It’s completely dependent on what we mean by superintelligence, but creating new technologies in a day will take maybe five years after the first clearly human-level general real AGI on this path, in my rough estimate.
Of course that’s scaled by how hard people are actually trying for it.
I largely agree that ASI will follow AGI faster, but with a couple caveats.
The road from AGI to superintelligence will very likely be fairly continuous. You could slap the term “superintelligence” almost wherever you want after it passes human level.
I do see some reasons that the road will go a little slower than we might think. Scaling laws are logarithmic; making more and better chips requires physical technology that the AGI can help with but can’t do until it gets better with robotics, possibly including new hardware (although humanoid robotics will be close to adequate for most things by then, with new control networks rapidly trained by the AGI).
If the architecture is similar to current LLMs, it’s enough like human thought that I expect the progression to remain logarithmic; you’re still using the same clumsy basic algorithm of using your knowledge to come up with ideas, then going through long chains of thought and ultimately experiments to test the validity of different ideas.
It’s completely dependent on what we mean by superintelligence, but creating new technologies in a day will take maybe five years after the first clearly human-level general real AGI on this path, in my rough estimate.
Of course that’s scaled by how hard people are actually trying for it.