If you think the true likelihood is 10%, and are being offered odds of 50:1 on the bet, then the Kelly Criterion suggests you should be about 8% of your bankroll. For various reasons (mostly human fallibility and an asymmetry in the curve of the Kelly utility), lots of people recommend betting at fractions of the Kelly amount. So someone in the position you suggest might reasonably wish to be something like $2-5k per $100k of bankroll. That strategy, your proposed credences, and the behavior observed so far would imply a bankroll of a few hundred thousand dollars. That’s not trivial, but also far from implausible in this community.
I’d also guess that the proper accounting of the spending here is partly on the bet for positive expected value, and partly on some sort of marketing / pushing for higher credibility of their idea sort of thing. I’m not sure of the exact mechanism or goal, and this is not a confident prediction, but it has that feel to it.
If you think the true likelihood is 10%, and are being offered odds of 50:1 on the bet, then the Kelly Criterion suggests you should be about 8% of your bankroll. For various reasons (mostly human fallibility and an asymmetry in the curve of the Kelly utility), lots of people recommend betting at fractions of the Kelly amount. So someone in the position you suggest might reasonably wish to be something like $2-5k per $100k of bankroll. That strategy, your proposed credences, and the behavior observed so far would imply a bankroll of a few hundred thousand dollars. That’s not trivial, but also far from implausible in this community.
I’d also guess that the proper accounting of the spending here is partly on the bet for positive expected value, and partly on some sort of marketing / pushing for higher credibility of their idea sort of thing. I’m not sure of the exact mechanism or goal, and this is not a confident prediction, but it has that feel to it.