Or take the risk that you’d feel bad by just … not paying. This is the one which should worry your counterparty, and which leads to escrow requirements.
Assuming the OP only accepts bets with accounts linked to a real world identity, or pseudonymous accounts with a very high reputation, such as gwern, I think it’s safe enough to not require an escrow.
Why would someone who’s built up a reputation in the LW/rationalist/etc. community wreck it, publicly and on-the-record, over <$50k USD?
They’d be sacrificing way more in future potential since no one will willingly work with a scoundrel.
Why would someone who’s built up a reputation in the LW/rationalist/etc. community wreck it, publicly and on-the-record, over <$50k USD?
A lot can happen in 5 years. The OP could die. The bettor could die. And who knows, maybe the evidence of aliens is just deniable enough that it doesn’t cost reputation to claim a win.
That doesn’t extinguish the record of the bet, whoever is the heir to their assets would still be responsible for settling the bet, maybe not at the full amount, but some settlement would still be necessary.
And who knows, maybe the evidence of aliens is just deniable enough that it doesn’t cost reputation to claim a win.
LOL! If you think an executor (or worse, an heir if the estate is already settled) is going to pay $100K to a rando based on a 5-year old less-wrong post, you have a VERY different model of humanity than I do. Even more so if the estate didn’t include any mention of it or money earmarked for it.
How do the desires of possible executors/heirs/etc. factor into this?
Clearly the bet will not auto-extinguish and auto-erase itself regardless of the future desires of anyone.
If you thought I implied that the bet must be settled in purely monetary terms, that wasn’t my intention. It’s entirely possible for the majority, or entirety, of the bet to be settled with non-monetary currencies, such as social-status, reputation, etc…
It’s just not all that likely for someone, or their successors, to insist on going down that path.
Or take the risk that you’d feel bad by just … not paying. This is the one which should worry your counterparty, and which leads to escrow requirements.
Assuming the OP only accepts bets with accounts linked to a real world identity, or pseudonymous accounts with a very high reputation, such as gwern, I think it’s safe enough to not require an escrow.
Why would someone who’s built up a reputation in the LW/rationalist/etc. community wreck it, publicly and on-the-record, over <$50k USD?
They’d be sacrificing way more in future potential since no one will willingly work with a scoundrel.
A lot can happen in 5 years. The OP could die. The bettor could die. And who knows, maybe the evidence of aliens is just deniable enough that it doesn’t cost reputation to claim a win.
That doesn’t extinguish the record of the bet, whoever is the heir to their assets would still be responsible for settling the bet, maybe not at the full amount, but some settlement would still be necessary.
That’s already factored into the odds.
LOL! If you think an executor (or worse, an heir if the estate is already settled) is going to pay $100K to a rando based on a 5-year old less-wrong post, you have a VERY different model of humanity than I do. Even more so if the estate didn’t include any mention of it or money earmarked for it.
How do the desires of possible executors/heirs/etc. factor into this?
Clearly the bet will not auto-extinguish and auto-erase itself regardless of the future desires of anyone.
If you thought I implied that the bet must be settled in purely monetary terms, that wasn’t my intention. It’s entirely possible for the majority, or entirety, of the bet to be settled with non-monetary currencies, such as social-status, reputation, etc…
It’s just not all that likely for someone, or their successors, to insist on going down that path.