To be clear, to resolve the bet in your favor, it has to be the case that:
a) We have >50% credence in “ontological shock” as you define it
and
b) UFOs/UAPs identified as of June 13 2023 are meaningfully a result of such “ontological shock” right?
(To be more explicit, I want to exclude scenarios like the following thing from being scored in your favor: 1. We discover novel philosophical arguments or empirical evidence that leads LessWrongers to believe we’re on balance more likely to live in a simulation than not.
2. Causally, the UFOs are a result of simulations, because everything we experience is a result of simulations, including hot-air balloons).
Anyway, happy to bet at 30:1 to up to $30k of my money, assuming that I don’t have to commit the $ to a third-party and this is just like a standard bet. (I’m willing to bet at those odds for either nominal USD $s or inflation-adjusted $2023 USD, if you want a different way to denominate the bet please let me know and I’ll think about it).
Correct, I’m not trying to collect on something like that. I would in the case of a simulation only if it was also the case that the ufos were something unique and specific (ie, actual glitches, or something expressly put in by the programmers) as opposed to being trivially true in the way that you mention.
Correct, you do not have to commit the money to any third party, you merely have to affirm that you will pay out in the event that I win.
At the moment 30:1 is less than I would prefer, if in the next few days I do not get enough new offers then I might take you up on this. 50:1 is currently the lowest I have accepted.
To be clear, to resolve the bet in your favor, it has to be the case that:
a) We have >50% credence in “ontological shock” as you define it
and
b) UFOs/UAPs identified as of June 13 2023 are meaningfully a result of such “ontological shock” right?
(To be more explicit, I want to exclude scenarios like the following thing from being scored in your favor:
1. We discover novel philosophical arguments or empirical evidence that leads LessWrongers to believe we’re on balance more likely to live in a simulation than not.
2. Causally, the UFOs are a result of simulations, because everything we experience is a result of simulations, including hot-air balloons).
Anyway, happy to bet at 30:1 to up to $30k of my money, assuming that I don’t have to commit the $ to a third-party and this is just like a standard bet. (I’m willing to bet at those odds for either nominal USD $s or inflation-adjusted $2023 USD, if you want a different way to denominate the bet please let me know and I’ll think about it).
Correct, I’m not trying to collect on something like that. I would in the case of a simulation only if it was also the case that the ufos were something unique and specific (ie, actual glitches, or something expressly put in by the programmers) as opposed to being trivially true in the way that you mention.
Correct, you do not have to commit the money to any third party, you merely have to affirm that you will pay out in the event that I win.
At the moment 30:1 is less than I would prefer, if in the next few days I do not get enough new offers then I might take you up on this. 50:1 is currently the lowest I have accepted.