I will predict that no bet with significant stakes (say, over $200 from the poster) gets made. This is a stunt, and the terms (of resolution and collection) are way too loose to be useful.
update a few days later: an established (ish − 6-month history, with quite a few comments and karma. @simon.) poster has confirmed that approx $2000 payment was received. Something weird could still be discovered, but this raises my estimate of legitimacy from ~15% to ~70% (had thought as high as 85% until I realized that it’s $100k agreement for simon to pay, which is very high for such things). Note that I had a quite low prior that an anonymous offer from a new poster would be legit, so this indicates a pretty big update.
further update: multiple accepted bets and confirmation of payments received. moving closer to the 85% likelihood I previously experienced, which is probably the maximum I can reach until a few months go by without any shenanigans being mentioned. I do hope there will be a summary posted, which can be updated each year as participants acknowledge their ongoing bets and mention any evidence that would change their individual or collective beliefs.
Don’t be afraid! This is a bet I hope to lose (well, really, a prediction I hope is false—transaction costs keep me from betting). I wish you the best, and I really do appreciate people specifying their beliefs with precision that allows betting.
Given the site and general level of goodwill here, my estimate is maybe as high as 15% that this will result in a significant deposit in the next 2 weeks, confirmed by at least one long-term poster on the site. That’s an order of magnitude higher than I’d give anywhere else, and I’m rooting for you!
Want to bet on your prediction? I’ll give you $100 right now if you’ll commit to sending me $200 if the OP does in fact end up sending LW participants at least $200 as his side of this bet.
I considered offering a bet with this, and 2:1 against it being real is probably generous. I’d make the bet in person with someone I know, but online hassles with strangers make it not worth the amusement value for me.
I don’t doubt that there will be offers, I doubt bet will be made. My best guess is the OP will fail to find a payment method that works, or will come up with a disagreement about terms that they use to justify backing out.
I look forward to seeing what happens. It’s a GREAT example of the legible, written proposal seeming (and being) great, and the practical human part being rather suspect.
I will predict that no bet with significant stakes (say, over $200 from the poster) gets made. This is a stunt, and the terms (of resolution and collection) are way too loose to be useful.
update a few days later: an established (ish − 6-month history, with quite a few comments and karma. @simon.) poster has confirmed that approx $2000 payment was received. Something weird could still be discovered, but this raises my estimate of legitimacy from ~15% to ~70% (had thought as high as 85% until I realized that it’s $100k agreement for simon to pay, which is very high for such things). Note that I had a quite low prior that an anonymous offer from a new poster would be legit, so this indicates a pretty big update.
further update: multiple accepted bets and confirmation of payments received. moving closer to the 85% likelihood I previously experienced, which is probably the maximum I can reach until a few months go by without any shenanigans being mentioned. I do hope there will be a summary posted, which can be updated each year as participants acknowledge their ongoing bets and mention any evidence that would change their individual or collective beliefs.
I’m afraid you are going to lose this bet. So long as people come can up with a bitcoin/eth address or a paypal account, there will be no issues.
Don’t be afraid! This is a bet I hope to lose (well, really, a prediction I hope is false—transaction costs keep me from betting). I wish you the best, and I really do appreciate people specifying their beliefs with precision that allows betting.
Given the site and general level of goodwill here, my estimate is maybe as high as 15% that this will result in a significant deposit in the next 2 weeks, confirmed by at least one long-term poster on the site. That’s an order of magnitude higher than I’d give anywhere else, and I’m rooting for you!
Want to bet on your prediction? I’ll give you $100 right now if you’ll commit to sending me $200 if the OP does in fact end up sending LW participants at least $200 as his side of this bet.
(The OP is a complete stranger to me.)
I considered offering a bet with this, and 2:1 against it being real is probably generous. I’d make the bet in person with someone I know, but online hassles with strangers make it not worth the amusement value for me.
Why would the terms as written dissuade people from betting?
I don’t doubt that there will be offers, I doubt bet will be made. My best guess is the OP will fail to find a payment method that works, or will come up with a disagreement about terms that they use to justify backing out.
I look forward to seeing what happens. It’s a GREAT example of the legible, written proposal seeming (and being) great, and the practical human part being rather suspect.