It strikes me that you’re wearing a lot of risk beyond the face value bet. Even if we assume everyone is acting in good faith, there’s likely credit risk across 10 different people promising a $100k+ payout (because most people don’t have that much cash, and even among those who do, there’s some likelihood of falling below that level of liquidity after a 5 year period). On your side, it looks like you’re just sending people your side of the bet before resolution, so they wear zero credit risk, even though the credit risk on your end was smaller to begin with, because coming up with 5k is much more plausible (again, assuming good faith actors). There’s also a time-value of money issue, where you paying now makes your side more valuable. To take the bet you made with Eliezer, you gave him $1k today, and he promised $150k if you pay out; that’s actually about 117k in current dollars with 5-year risk-free interest rates around 5%. It might be better to bet in net-present-value terms.
It strikes me that you’re wearing a lot of risk beyond the face value bet. Even if we assume everyone is acting in good faith, there’s likely credit risk across 10 different people promising a $100k+ payout (because most people don’t have that much cash, and even among those who do, there’s some likelihood of falling below that level of liquidity after a 5 year period). On your side, it looks like you’re just sending people your side of the bet before resolution, so they wear zero credit risk, even though the credit risk on your end was smaller to begin with, because coming up with 5k is much more plausible (again, assuming good faith actors). There’s also a time-value of money issue, where you paying now makes your side more valuable. To take the bet you made with Eliezer, you gave him $1k today, and he promised $150k if you pay out; that’s actually about 117k in current dollars with 5-year risk-free interest rates around 5%. It might be better to bet in net-present-value terms.