I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same. If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.
I commit to paying up if I agree there’s a >0.4 probability something non-mundane happened in a UFO/UAP case, or if there’s overwhelming consensus to that effect and my probability is >0.1.
Though I guess I should warn you in advance that I expect that this would require either big obvious evidence or repeatable evidence. An example of big would be an alien ship hovering at the fifty yard line during superbowl, repeatable would be some way of doing science to the aliens. Government alien-existence announcements lacking any such evidence might lead to me paying on the second clause rather than the first.
Enticing offer. Barring better odds and max payout offer that would eat up my budget, I would like I go forward with this. I will wait to see what offers come in first.
Max bet $50k, I would be totally happy to bet at 50:1 odds.
Let us move forward!
I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same. If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.
I commit to paying up if I agree there’s a >0.4 probability something non-mundane happened in a UFO/UAP case, or if there’s overwhelming consensus to that effect and my probability is >0.1.
Though I guess I should warn you in advance that I expect that this would require either big obvious evidence or repeatable evidence. An example of big would be an alien ship hovering at the fifty yard line during superbowl, repeatable would be some way of doing science to the aliens. Government alien-existence announcements lacking any such evidence might lead to me paying on the second clause rather than the first.
I’ll message you details.
Good enough for me
I have recieved $1000. The bet is on!
Glad we could make this bet!
Enticing offer. Barring better odds and max payout offer that would eat up my budget, I would like I go forward with this. I will wait to see what offers come in first.
You’ve quadrupled my P(aliens or demons or such have been flying around Earth’s atmosphere). Thanks for this post (and this comment in particular).