Fair. I accept. 200:1 of my $100k against your $500. How are you setting these up?
I’m happy to pay $100k if my understanding of the universe (no aliens, no supernatural, etc.) is shaken. Also happy to pay up after 5 years if evidence turns up later about activities before or in this 5-year period.
I am committed to paying $100k if aliens/supernatural/non-prosaic explanations are, in the next 5 years, considered, in aggregate, to be 50%+ likely in explaining at least one UFO.
Given your lack of history I would want much better odds and lower payment from my side, for you I would probably max at $500 and would want 200:1
Fair. I accept. 200:1 of my $100k against your $500. How are you setting these up?
I’m happy to pay $100k if my understanding of the universe (no aliens, no supernatural, etc.) is shaken. Also happy to pay up after 5 years if evidence turns up later about activities before or in this 5-year period.
(Also, regarding history, I have a second Less Wrong account with 11 years of history: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/tedsanders)
Awesome! DM me and we can figure out payment options
$500 payment received.
I am committed to paying $100k if aliens/supernatural/non-prosaic explanations are, in the next 5 years, considered, in aggregate, to be 50%+ likely in explaining at least one UFO.
(I’ve added my $50 to RatsWrong’s side of this bet)