@RatsWrongAboutUAP I’m willing to risk up to $20k at 50:1 odds (i.e. If you give me $400 now, I’ll owe you $20k in 5 years if you win the bet) conditional on (1) you not being privy to any non-public information about UFOs/UAP and (2) you being okay with forfeiting any potential winnings in the unlikely event that I die before bet resolution.
Re (1): Could you state clearly whether you do or do not have non-public information pertaining to the bet?
Re (2): FYI The odds of me dying in the next 5 years are less than 3% by SSA base rates, and my credence is even less than that if we don’t account for global or existential catastrophic risk. The reason I’d ask to not owe you any money in the worlds in which you win (and are still alive to collect money) and I’m dead is because I wouldn’t want anyone else to become responsible for settling such a significant debt on my behalf.
If you accept, please reply here and send the money to this Bitcoin address: 3P6L17gtYbj99mF8Wi4XEXviGTq81iQBBJ
I’ll confirm receipt of the money when I get notified of your reply here. Thanks!
@RatsWrongAboutUAP I’m willing to risk up to $20k at 50:1 odds (i.e. If you give me $400 now, I’ll owe you $20k in 5 years if you win the bet) conditional on (1) you not being privy to any non-public information about UFOs/UAP and (2) you being okay with forfeiting any potential winnings in the unlikely event that I die before bet resolution.
Re (1): Could you state clearly whether you do or do not have non-public information pertaining to the bet?
Re (2): FYI The odds of me dying in the next 5 years are less than 3% by SSA base rates, and my credence is even less than that if we don’t account for global or existential catastrophic risk. The reason I’d ask to not owe you any money in the worlds in which you win (and are still alive to collect money) and I’m dead is because I wouldn’t want anyone else to become responsible for settling such a significant debt on my behalf.
If you accept, please reply here and send the money to this Bitcoin address: 3P6L17gtYbj99mF8Wi4XEXviGTq81iQBBJ
I’ll confirm receipt of the money when I get notified of your reply here. Thanks!
I do not have any non-public information about ufos/uap.
Sure
Please verify reception of funds and confirm our bet https://blockstream.info/tx/ab7173abec208a6eda17bdf1b75668bc5e6efe46356f40109125a42962bfb9e2
Received $400 worth of bitcoin. I confirm the bet.