I don’t understand your claim (presumably based on this offer of a wager) that “the LessWrong community in aggregate, something has gone horribly horribly wrong.”
If you’re asking how I would distinguish “horribly, horribly, wrong” from “just somewhat horribly wrong” or plain “wrong”, my answer would be that there’s no real distinction and I just used that particular turn of phrase because that’s the phrase that evand used.
I don’t intend to say (and I don’t THINK anyone is saying) you should undertake bets that make you uncomfortable.
Sure, but “bets that make me uncomfortable” is “all rationalist bets”.
“normies don’t do this” is a rotten and decrepit enough fence that I don’t think it’s sufficient on it’s own
I should be clearer yet. I’m wondering how you distinguish “the community in aggregate has gone (just somewhat) horribly wrong” from “I don’t think this particular mechanism works for everyone, certainly not me”.
If making actual wagers makes you uncomfortable, don’t do it. If analyzing many of your beliefs in a bet-like framing (probability distribution of future experiences, with enough concreteness to be resolvable at some future point) is uncomfortable, I’d recommend giving that part of it another go, as it’s pretty generally useful as a way to avoid fuzzy thinking (and fuzzy communication, which I consider a different thing).
In any case, thanks for the discussion—I always appreciate hearing from those with different beliefs and models of how to improve our individual and shared beliefs about the world.
If you’re asking how I would distinguish “horribly, horribly, wrong” from “just somewhat horribly wrong” or plain “wrong”, my answer would be that there’s no real distinction and I just used that particular turn of phrase because that’s the phrase that evand used.
Sure, but “bets that make me uncomfortable” is “all rationalist bets”.
I disagree.
I should be clearer yet. I’m wondering how you distinguish “the community in aggregate has gone (just somewhat) horribly wrong” from “I don’t think this particular mechanism works for everyone, certainly not me”.
If making actual wagers makes you uncomfortable, don’t do it. If analyzing many of your beliefs in a bet-like framing (probability distribution of future experiences, with enough concreteness to be resolvable at some future point) is uncomfortable, I’d recommend giving that part of it another go, as it’s pretty generally useful as a way to avoid fuzzy thinking (and fuzzy communication, which I consider a different thing).
In any case, thanks for the discussion—I always appreciate hearing from those with different beliefs and models of how to improve our individual and shared beliefs about the world.