I don’t know what assumptions the OP has, but don’t forget the simulation argument: If you think we are heeded for super intelligence, then the following all become more likely:
You are in a simulation—maybe a weird one, maybe one that messes with your brain
Aliens intervene to prevent the creation of the ASI.
I don’t think “we’re currently living in a simulation” or “ASI would have effects beyond imagination, at least for the median human imaginer” are such weird beliefs among this crowd that them proving true would qualify for OP to win the bet. Of course, they specifically say that if UAP are special cases in the simulation that counts, but not the mere belief in simulation.
I don’t know what assumptions the OP has, but don’t forget the simulation argument: If you think we are heeded for super intelligence, then the following all become more likely:
You are in a simulation—maybe a weird one, maybe one that messes with your brain
Aliens intervene to prevent the creation of the ASI.
An ASI creates unbelievable effects on Earth.
I don’t think “we’re currently living in a simulation” or “ASI would have effects beyond imagination, at least for the median human imaginer” are such weird beliefs among this crowd that them proving true would qualify for OP to win the bet. Of course, they specifically say that if UAP are special cases in the simulation that counts, but not the mere belief in simulation.