It’s not random internet strangers: elsewhere he writes, “I was only ever going to engage with people with established reputations because obviously. I reserved the right to choose who to bet with.”
I am not willing to bet about the object-level proposition, but I am willing to bet that he gets paid at least .4 of his winnings. In other words, if it turns out that he won the bet, then I would be willing give you $1000 in exchange for $2500 ($1000 times .4) times whatever fraction he ends up collecting (over the ensuing 5 years, say).
It’s not random internet strangers: elsewhere he writes, “I was only ever going to engage with people with established reputations because obviously. I reserved the right to choose who to bet with.”
I am not willing to bet about the object-level proposition, but I am willing to bet that he gets paid at least .4 of his winnings. In other words, if it turns out that he won the bet, then I would be willing give you $1000 in exchange for $2500 ($1000 times .4) times whatever fraction he ends up collecting (over the ensuing 5 years, say).