Carl and I have ultimately agreed to a 29:1 bet on the combined amount. The term will expire on July 25 2028 and may be extended by no more than 2 days upon reasonable request at Carl’s sole discretion. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.
Ted and I agreed on a 40:1 bet where I take RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side. The term will expire on Aug 2 2028. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.
Hi Ted. I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you’re interested.
Carl, have you written somewhere about why you are confident that all UFOs so far are prosaic in nature? Would be interest to read/listen to your thoughts on this. (Alternatively, a link to some other source that you find gives a particularly compelling explanation is also good.)
No. Short version is that the prior for the combination of technologies and motives for aliens (and worse for magic, etc) is very low, and the evidence distribution is familiar from deep dives in multiple bogus fields (including parapsychology, imaginary social science phenomena, and others), with understandable data-generating processes so not much likelihood ratio.
Carl, I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you better odds than 150:1. DM me if you’re interested.
I’m interested in my $250k against your $10k.
I could offer $5k against your $185k, Carl. If you’re interested, DM me. Same odds as a European Roulette, albeit with a much delayed payment.
We’ve agreed to make a 25:1 bet on this. John will put the hash of the bet amount/terms below.
Carl and I have ultimately agreed to a 29:1 bet on the combined amount. The term will expire on July 25 2028 and may be extended by no more than 2 days upon reasonable request at Carl’s sole discretion. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.
+1
I’d take the same bet on even better terms, if you’re willing. My $200k against your $5k.
Ted and I agreed on a 40:1 bet where I take RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side. The term will expire on Aug 2 2028. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.
Confirmed.
Hi Ted. I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you’re interested.
I responded to you via DM
To clarify, I would send the $5k now.
Carl, have you written somewhere about why you are confident that all UFOs so far are prosaic in nature? Would be interest to read/listen to your thoughts on this. (Alternatively, a link to some other source that you find gives a particularly compelling explanation is also good.)
No. Short version is that the prior for the combination of technologies and motives for aliens (and worse for magic, etc) is very low, and the evidence distribution is familiar from deep dives in multiple bogus fields (including parapsychology, imaginary social science phenomena, and others), with understandable data-generating processes so not much likelihood ratio.
Carl, I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you better odds than 150:1. DM me if you’re interested.