Contrarians of LW, if you want to be successful, please don’t follow this strategy. Chances are that many people have raised the same possibility before, and anyway raising possibilities isn’t Bayesian evidence, so you’ll just get ignored. Instead, try to prove that the stuff is bullshit. This way, if you’re right, others will learn something, and if you’re wrong, you will have learned something.
JW: To what extent do you think you’ve become a part of the New Age movement? The stalls in the atrium tonight seemed to be concerned with a lot of New Age material, and to an extent the way you’ve been talking about Virtual Realities and mind expansion you seem to be almost a forerunner of the movement.
RAW: The Berkeley mob once called Leary and me “the counter-culture of the counter-culture.” I’m some kind of antibody in the New Age movement. My function is to raise the possibility, “Hey, you know, some of this stuff might be bullshit.”
Most scientists, skeptics, theists, and new agers of various stripes share a common (and not necessarily wrong) belief in the truth. They differ primarily in how they believe one gets to the truth, and under what conditions, if ever, one should change one’s mind about the truth.
Robert Anton Wilson was unusual in that he really tried to believe multiple and contradictory claimed truths, rather than just one. For instance, on Monday, Wednesday and Friday he might believe astrology worked. Then on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday he’d believe astrology was bullshit. On Sunday he’d try to believe both at the same time. This wasn’t indecision but rather a deliberate effort to change his mind, and see what happened. That is, he was brain hacking by adjusting his belief system. He was not walled in by a need to maintain a consistent belief system. He deliberately believed contradictory things.
Call a believer someone who believes proposition A. Call a nonbeliever someone who believes proposition NOT A. Call an a-gnostic someone who doesn’t assign a much higher probability to one of A and NOT A. Wilson would be a multi-gnostic: that is, someone who believes A and believes NOT A, someone who is both a believer and a non-believer. This is how he came across as a skeptic among mystics and a mystic among skeptics. He was both, and several other things besides.
I doubt I can do much to prove a lot of the ‘core’ concepts of rationality, but I can do a lot to point people towards it and shake up their belief that there isn’t such a proof.
Yeah, and if the possibility-raiser is a human who would have provided evidence if they had any, then raising possibilities without evidence is Bayesian evidence in the other direction :-)
I think “try to prove” was an importantly different word choice from “prove” in cousin_it’s comment. The point is that in the context of a “new age” movement, it may be enough to raise the possibility; people really may not be thinking about it. In the context of Less Wrong, that is not usually enough; people are often already thinking about evidence for and against.
-- Robert Anton Wilson
Contrarians of LW, if you want to be successful, please don’t follow this strategy. Chances are that many people have raised the same possibility before, and anyway raising possibilities isn’t Bayesian evidence, so you’ll just get ignored. Instead, try to prove that the stuff is bullshit. This way, if you’re right, others will learn something, and if you’re wrong, you will have learned something.
For what it’s worth, some context:
— http://media.hyperreal.org/zines/est/intervs/raw.html
Wilson had a tendency to come across as a skeptic among mystics and a mystic among skeptics.
Most scientists, skeptics, theists, and new agers of various stripes share a common (and not necessarily wrong) belief in the truth. They differ primarily in how they believe one gets to the truth, and under what conditions, if ever, one should change one’s mind about the truth.
Robert Anton Wilson was unusual in that he really tried to believe multiple and contradictory claimed truths, rather than just one. For instance, on Monday, Wednesday and Friday he might believe astrology worked. Then on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday he’d believe astrology was bullshit. On Sunday he’d try to believe both at the same time. This wasn’t indecision but rather a deliberate effort to change his mind, and see what happened. That is, he was brain hacking by adjusting his belief system. He was not walled in by a need to maintain a consistent belief system. He deliberately believed contradictory things.
Call a believer someone who believes proposition A. Call a nonbeliever someone who believes proposition NOT A. Call an a-gnostic someone who doesn’t assign a much higher probability to one of A and NOT A. Wilson would be a multi-gnostic: that is, someone who believes A and believes NOT A, someone who is both a believer and a non-believer. This is how he came across as a skeptic among mystics and a mystic among skeptics. He was both, and several other things besides.
I doubt I can do much to prove a lot of the ‘core’ concepts of rationality, but I can do a lot to point people towards it and shake up their belief that there isn’t such a proof.
(1) Insisting that those who disagree with you prove their opinions sets too high a bar for them. Being light means surrendering to the truth ASAP.
(2) Raising possibilities is Bayesian evidence, assuming the possibility-raiser is a human, not a random-hypothesis generator.
Yeah, and if the possibility-raiser is a human who would have provided evidence if they had any, then raising possibilities without evidence is Bayesian evidence in the other direction :-)
I think “try to prove” was an importantly different word choice from “prove” in cousin_it’s comment. The point is that in the context of a “new age” movement, it may be enough to raise the possibility; people really may not be thinking about it. In the context of Less Wrong, that is not usually enough; people are often already thinking about evidence for and against.