Split: generate alternative hypotheses. “I believe X. What not-X might I come to believe, and why?”
Commit: flesh out those hypotheses with contingent commitments for action. This is how you know you actually generated a real hypothesis rather than just “maybe the house elves did it, wow, this rationalist stuff is easy.”
Practice. It might be a great rationality workout to take very low-probability hypotheses seriously and build an action plan. “If I come to believe house elves did it, I will submit myself for psychological evaluation. If I pass that evaluation, I will dedicate my life to documenting their existence.”
In my head this breaks down like:
Split: generate alternative hypotheses. “I believe X. What not-X might I come to believe, and why?”
Commit: flesh out those hypotheses with contingent commitments for action. This is how you know you actually generated a real hypothesis rather than just “maybe the house elves did it, wow, this rationalist stuff is easy.”
Practice. It might be a great rationality workout to take very low-probability hypotheses seriously and build an action plan. “If I come to believe house elves did it, I will submit myself for psychological evaluation. If I pass that evaluation, I will dedicate my life to documenting their existence.”