The problem with something like e.g. funding applications is that unless deep honesty (which I agree would lead to the best outcomes!) is actively rewarded, then whoever is that honest ends up being a sucker who loses to those who express more confidence, even if unwarranted. This in fact I’d say is a big problem with funding and investments, because the shallowness of the honesty required (in fact, the encouragement of all sorts of truth twisting this side of outright lying) creates a situation in which it’s very easy for people to slide directly into fraud or at least delusion about their own prospects as soon as things go awry.
The problem with something like e.g. funding applications is that unless deep honesty (which I agree would lead to the best outcomes!) is actively rewarded, then whoever is that honest ends up being a sucker who loses to those who express more confidence, even if unwarranted. This in fact I’d say is a big problem with funding and investments, because the shallowness of the honesty required (in fact, the encouragement of all sorts of truth twisting this side of outright lying) creates a situation in which it’s very easy for people to slide directly into fraud or at least delusion about their own prospects as soon as things go awry.