You can’t look for evidence of X rather than evidence against, in the sense of conservation of expected evidence. But this just means that the amount of the move multiplied by the probability will be equal. It does not mean that the probability of finding evidence in favor is 50% and the probability of finding evidence against is 50%. So in that sense, you can indeed look for evidence in favor, by looking in places that have a very high probability of evidence in favor and low probability of evidence against; it is just that if you unluckily happen to find evidence against, it will be extremely strong evidence against.
Yes. I call that informally playing the variance. You want to look somewhere where there is the highest probability of a swing into the range that you want.
You can’t look for evidence of X rather than evidence against, in the sense of conservation of expected evidence. But this just means that the amount of the move multiplied by the probability will be equal. It does not mean that the probability of finding evidence in favor is 50% and the probability of finding evidence against is 50%. So in that sense, you can indeed look for evidence in favor, by looking in places that have a very high probability of evidence in favor and low probability of evidence against; it is just that if you unluckily happen to find evidence against, it will be extremely strong evidence against.
Yes. I call that informally playing the variance. You want to look somewhere where there is the highest probability of a swing into the range that you want.