If it takes 80 H100s to approximate the compute of 1 human (and 800 for the memory but you can batch), how many does it take to host a model that is marginally superintelligent? (Just barely beats humans by enough margin for 5 percent p value)
How many for something strategically superintelligent, where humans would have trouble containing the machine as a player?
If Nvidia is at 2 million h100s per year for 2024, then it seems like this would be adding 25,000 “person equivalents”. If you think it’s 10x to reach superintelligence then that would be 2500 ai geniuses, where they are marginally better than a human at every task.
If you think a strategic superintelligence needs a lot of hardware to consider all the options in parallel for its plans, say 10,000 as much as needed at the floor, there could be 200 of them?
And you can simply ignore all the single GPUs, the only thing that matters are clusters with enough inter node bandwidth, where the strategic ASI may require custom hardware that would have to be designed and built first.
I am not confident in these numbers, I am just trying to show how in a world of RSI compute becomes the limiting factor. It’s also the clearest way to regulate this : you can frankly ignore everyone’s nvlink and infiniband setups, you would be trying to regulate custom interlink hardware.
If it takes 80 H100s to approximate the compute of 1 human (and 800 for the memory but you can batch), how many does it take to host a model that is marginally superintelligent? (Just barely beats humans by enough margin for 5 percent p value)
How many for something strategically superintelligent, where humans would have trouble containing the machine as a player?
If Nvidia is at 2 million h100s per year for 2024, then it seems like this would be adding 25,000 “person equivalents”. If you think it’s 10x to reach superintelligence then that would be 2500 ai geniuses, where they are marginally better than a human at every task.
If you think a strategic superintelligence needs a lot of hardware to consider all the options in parallel for its plans, say 10,000 as much as needed at the floor, there could be 200 of them?
And you can simply ignore all the single GPUs, the only thing that matters are clusters with enough inter node bandwidth, where the strategic ASI may require custom hardware that would have to be designed and built first.
I am not confident in these numbers, I am just trying to show how in a world of RSI compute becomes the limiting factor. It’s also the clearest way to regulate this : you can frankly ignore everyone’s nvlink and infiniband setups, you would be trying to regulate custom interlink hardware.