10% isn’t that bad as long as you continue the programs that were found to succeed and stop the programs that were found to fail. Come up with 10 intelligent-sounding ideas, obtain expert endorsements, do 10 randomized controlled trials, get 1 significant improvement. Then repeat.
10% isn’t that bad as long as you continue the programs that were found to succeed and stop the programs that were found to fail. Come up with 10 intelligent-sounding ideas, obtain expert endorsements, do 10 randomized controlled trials, get 1 significant improvement. Then repeat.
Unfortunately we don’t really have the political system to do this.
But I have this great idea that will change that!
...Oh.
Unfortunately, governments are really bad at doing this.
Humans in general are very bad at this. The only reason capitalism works is that the losing experiments run out of money.
That’s a very powerful reason.
True, but that doesn’t mean we’re laboring in the dark. It just means we’ve got our eyes closed.
Unfortunately, the people involved have an incentive to keep them closed.
I don’t think that’s really relevant to the original quote.
It depends on how many completely ineffectual programs would demonstrate improvement versus current practices.