I think the mathematical theory of natural selection + the theory of DNA / genes were probably very influential in both medicine and biology, because they make very precise predictions and the real world is a very good fit for the models they propose. (That is, they are “real”, in the sense that “real” is meant in the OP.)
In contrast, I think the general insight of “each part of these organisms has been designed by a local hill-climbing process to maximise reproduction” would not have been very influential in either medicine or biology, had it not been accompanied by the math.
But surely you wouldn’t get the mathematics of natural selection without the general insight, and so I think the general insight deserves to get a bunch of the credit. And both the mathematics of natural selection and the general insight seem pretty tied up to the notion of ‘reproductive fitness’.
But surely you wouldn’t get the mathematics of natural selection without the general insight, and so I think the general insight deserves to get a bunch of the credit. And both the mathematics of natural selection and the general insight seem pretty tied up to the notion of ‘reproductive fitness’.
Here is my understanding of what Abram thinks:
Rationality is like “reproductive fitness”, in that it is hard to formalize and turn into hard math. Regardless of how much theoretical progress we make on understanding rationality, it is never going to turn into something that can make very precise, accurate predictions about real systems. Nonetheless, qualitative understanding of rationality, of the sort that can make rough predictions about real systems, is useful for AI safety.
Hopefully that makes it clear why I’m trying to imagine a counterfactual where the math was never developed.
It’s possible that I’m misunderstanding Abram and he actually thinks that we will be able to make precise, accurate predictions about real systems; but if that’s the case I think he in fact is “realist about rationality” and this post is in fact pointing at a crux between him and Richard (or him and me), though not as well as he would like.
But surely you wouldn’t get the mathematics of natural selection without the general insight, and so I think the general insight deserves to get a bunch of the credit. And both the mathematics of natural selection and the general insight seem pretty tied up to the notion of ‘reproductive fitness’.
Here is my understanding of what Abram thinks:
Rationality is like “reproductive fitness”, in that it is hard to formalize and turn into hard math. Regardless of how much theoretical progress we make on understanding rationality, it is never going to turn into something that can make very precise, accurate predictions about real systems. Nonetheless, qualitative understanding of rationality, of the sort that can make rough predictions about real systems, is useful for AI safety.
Hopefully that makes it clear why I’m trying to imagine a counterfactual where the math was never developed.
It’s possible that I’m misunderstanding Abram and he actually thinks that we will be able to make precise, accurate predictions about real systems; but if that’s the case I think he in fact is “realist about rationality” and this post is in fact pointing at a crux between him and Richard (or him and me), though not as well as he would like.