Gambling and interviewing seem like the opposite sides of the same “trying a low-probability undertaking” approach. In the former case you want the person to realize, after losing a few times, that winning at gambling is not a fruitful undertaking, except in some very specific circumstances. In the latter case, even if someone failed to secure an offer several times in a row, you want the person to continue trying until they succeed. Yet emotionally the situation can be similar, or even reversed.
Good point. Note that gambling has the added difficulty in that it’s emotionally adversarial—the casino/bookie is setting the game and environment to confuse the player’s estimates of success probability and magnitude. Interviewing probably has a little of this in that many interviewers are more interested in making themselves feel smart than in hiring the candidates that will contribute most.
In any case, focusing on someone’s motivation and their perception of the distribution of successes and failures should be secondary to analysis of the real possible outcomes. For most people, there exist jobs they shouldn’t interview for. A blanket “keep trying” is unhelpful, without specific analysis of expected value.
Gambling and interviewing seem like the opposite sides of the same “trying a low-probability undertaking” approach. In the former case you want the person to realize, after losing a few times, that winning at gambling is not a fruitful undertaking, except in some very specific circumstances. In the latter case, even if someone failed to secure an offer several times in a row, you want the person to continue trying until they succeed. Yet emotionally the situation can be similar, or even reversed.
Good point. Note that gambling has the added difficulty in that it’s emotionally adversarial—the casino/bookie is setting the game and environment to confuse the player’s estimates of success probability and magnitude. Interviewing probably has a little of this in that many interviewers are more interested in making themselves feel smart than in hiring the candidates that will contribute most.
In any case, focusing on someone’s motivation and their perception of the distribution of successes and failures should be secondary to analysis of the real possible outcomes. For most people, there exist jobs they shouldn’t interview for. A blanket “keep trying” is unhelpful, without specific analysis of expected value.