The core idea of this post has occurred to me more than once when considering plans. I’m still working on how to relate to plans with low chances of success. On the one hand low chances of success suggest a bad plan, and being willing to “do the improbable” feels like it’s an excuse for having a bad plan. On the other, sometimes you really want to be doing low probability, high EV plans. I’m uncertain over whether LW counts as this. Sometimes I think we can definitely succeed at big stuff, sometimes it more seems like high-EV low probability. I’m not sure.
But all in all, the idea here seems important to think more about. I’d actually like to see more thought on this (and perhaps do my own stuff here).
Also want to note that Anna’s post on “going at half-speed” seems at least a bit related.
The core idea of this post has occurred to me more than once when considering plans. I’m still working on how to relate to plans with low chances of success. On the one hand low chances of success suggest a bad plan, and being willing to “do the improbable” feels like it’s an excuse for having a bad plan. On the other, sometimes you really want to be doing low probability, high EV plans. I’m uncertain over whether LW counts as this. Sometimes I think we can definitely succeed at big stuff, sometimes it more seems like high-EV low probability. I’m not sure.
But all in all, the idea here seems important to think more about. I’d actually like to see more thought on this (and perhaps do my own stuff here).
Also want to note that Anna’s post on “going at half-speed” seems at least a bit related.