An over-simplification, but an evocative one:
The social sciences are contentious, their predictions questionable.
And yet social sciences use the scientific method; AI predictions generally don’t.
Hence predictions involving human-level AI should be treated as less certain than any prediction in the social sciences.
The difficulty in predicting AI, in three lines
An over-simplification, but an evocative one:
The social sciences are contentious, their predictions questionable.
And yet social sciences use the scientific method; AI predictions generally don’t.
Hence predictions involving human-level AI should be treated as less certain than any prediction in the social sciences.