I’m constructing a detailed analysis of all these points for my “How to Predict AI” paper.
And there are few details about methodologies, yes—because the vast majority of predictions have no methodologies. The quality of predictions is really, really low, and there are reasons to suspect that even when the methodologies are better, the prediction is still barely better than guesswork.
My stub was an unjustified snark, but the general sentiment behind it—that AI predictions (especially timeline predictions) are less reliable that social science results—is, as far as I can tell, true.
I’m constructing a detailed analysis of all these points for my “How to Predict AI” paper.
And there are few details about methodologies, yes—because the vast majority of predictions have no methodologies. The quality of predictions is really, really low, and there are reasons to suspect that even when the methodologies are better, the prediction is still barely better than guesswork.
My stub was an unjustified snark, but the general sentiment behind it—that AI predictions (especially timeline predictions) are less reliable that social science results—is, as far as I can tell, true.