A working AI probably needs to duplicate thousands of individual systems found in the human mind. Whether we get there by scanning a brain for 4 years and 1 million electron beams working in parallel, or we have thousands of programming teams develop each subsystem, this is not going to be cheap.
You don’t get there by accident—evolution did it, but it took millions of years, with each subsystem being developed to build upon previous ones.
Have you heard anything about some massive corporation or government getting ready to drop a few tril on an all out effort?
No, and the current discussions are how there are not enough common resources to pay for current needs. There isn’t enough money to fund large militaries and to pay all of the expenses for the elderly and fix the roads and do everything else as it is. Money has to be borrowed from more successful economies, which just makes the fiscal crisis worse in the future.
Also, no corporation can justify spending more money than any company on the planet actually has to develop something that no one has ever done before and thus seems likely to fail.
Having read the brain emulation roadmap, and articles on how modern neural networks can model individual subsystems in the human mind successfully, this does not seem like a problem that we have to wait another 100 years to solve. The human race might be able to do it in 20 years if they started today and put the needed resources into the problem.
But it isn’t going to happen, and predictions of success can’t really be made until the actual process is actually started. It could be 10 years from now, it could be 200, before the actual effort is initiated. On the plus side, as time goes on, the cost to do this does go down to an extent. The total “bill of materials” for the hardware goes down with every year with Moore’s law. Better software techniques make it more likely that such a huge project could be developed and not be so buggy it wouldn’t run at all. But, in 30 years from now, it will still be a difficult and expensive endeavor needing a lot of resources.
A working AI probably needs to duplicate thousands of individual systems found in the human mind. Whether we get there by scanning a brain for 4 years and 1 million electron beams working in parallel, or we have thousands of programming teams develop each subsystem, this is not going to be cheap.
You don’t get there by accident—evolution did it, but it took millions of years, with each subsystem being developed to build upon previous ones.
Have you heard anything about some massive corporation or government getting ready to drop a few tril on an all out effort?
No, and the current discussions are how there are not enough common resources to pay for current needs. There isn’t enough money to fund large militaries and to pay all of the expenses for the elderly and fix the roads and do everything else as it is. Money has to be borrowed from more successful economies, which just makes the fiscal crisis worse in the future.
Also, no corporation can justify spending more money than any company on the planet actually has to develop something that no one has ever done before and thus seems likely to fail.
Having read the brain emulation roadmap, and articles on how modern neural networks can model individual subsystems in the human mind successfully, this does not seem like a problem that we have to wait another 100 years to solve. The human race might be able to do it in 20 years if they started today and put the needed resources into the problem.
But it isn’t going to happen, and predictions of success can’t really be made until the actual process is actually started. It could be 10 years from now, it could be 200, before the actual effort is initiated. On the plus side, as time goes on, the cost to do this does go down to an extent. The total “bill of materials” for the hardware goes down with every year with Moore’s law. Better software techniques make it more likely that such a huge project could be developed and not be so buggy it wouldn’t run at all. But, in 30 years from now, it will still be a difficult and expensive endeavor needing a lot of resources.