Earlier near-misses are better known because secrecy was lifted. But such events still happen, like nuclear alert in Russia in 1995, Indian-Pakistan standoff in 2001, Ebola 2014. So the main question is if general safety and sanity lines will rise?
And they probably rise in main superpowers but we have many new nuclear countries as well as new risky technologies.
We don’t know what kind of technologies will be dominating in the second half of 21 century, but more important question is what kind of safety levels will be used?
We could see that in general safety is growing in all domains: nuclear, cars, planes are safer now. But also number of users is also growing which may result in more accidents.
So near-misses may be very preliminary and rough estimate of general safety levels which is typical to humanity and thus could be used to make reasonable expectation about future risks.
It also shows that rising general safety levels in all domains may be universal instruments to prevent global catastrophes.
But also the number of “trails” is rising and it rises a possibility of even very improbable catastrophies
Earlier near-misses are better known because secrecy was lifted. But such events still happen, like nuclear alert in Russia in 1995, Indian-Pakistan standoff in 2001, Ebola 2014. So the main question is if general safety and sanity lines will rise?
And they probably rise in main superpowers but we have many new nuclear countries as well as new risky technologies.
We don’t know what kind of technologies will be dominating in the second half of 21 century, but more important question is what kind of safety levels will be used?
We could see that in general safety is growing in all domains: nuclear, cars, planes are safer now. But also number of users is also growing which may result in more accidents.
So near-misses may be very preliminary and rough estimate of general safety levels which is typical to humanity and thus could be used to make reasonable expectation about future risks.
It also shows that rising general safety levels in all domains may be universal instruments to prevent global catastrophes.
But also the number of “trails” is rising and it rises a possibility of even very improbable catastrophies