Thanks, I forgot about it. Looking at the conclusions:
So, conditional on a kid catching COVID, I guess I’m currently thinking that I should mainly be weighing a ~2% chance of a miserable months-long ordeal until they recover, plus (overlapping) ~1% chance of a big-deal long-term latent problem that will show up later in life.
Considering that in the previous wave, about 8% of population in my country got COVID, and that this wave starts a bit faster and there is more political resistance against closing schools or any other inconvenience, I would estimate the chance of getting COVID at school as 10-20%. That would translate to cca 0.1% chance of big health problems. (Divide by two for the older kid, assuming the vaccine is available in winter.)
That is… still enough to make me feel uncomfortable. I wonder if it is perhaps wrong calibration; what other child activities have 0.1% chance of big health problems?
You should consider how healthy and fit your kids are. All stats that we see now consider the whole population and there are probably sub-populations (of children) that have significantly worse health than average and these will dominate the number suffering from Covid and long Covid. If your kids are fit i.e. handle most other infectious diseases without problems (or even have few visible ones, to begin with) you can probably divide the number by 10 or more.
For context: I have four boys ages 10 to 17 and got all of them vaccinated except for the youngest.
Thanks, I forgot about it. Looking at the conclusions:
Considering that in the previous wave, about 8% of population in my country got COVID, and that this wave starts a bit faster and there is more political resistance against closing schools or any other inconvenience, I would estimate the chance of getting COVID at school as 10-20%. That would translate to cca 0.1% chance of big health problems. (Divide by two for the older kid, assuming the vaccine is available in winter.)
That is… still enough to make me feel uncomfortable. I wonder if it is perhaps wrong calibration; what other child activities have 0.1% chance of big health problems?
You should consider how healthy and fit your kids are. All stats that we see now consider the whole population and there are probably sub-populations (of children) that have significantly worse health than average and these will dominate the number suffering from Covid and long Covid. If your kids are fit i.e. handle most other infectious diseases without problems (or even have few visible ones, to begin with) you can probably divide the number by 10 or more.
For context: I have four boys ages 10 to 17 and got all of them vaccinated except for the youngest.