This really gets at the heart of what intuitively struck me wrong (read: “confused me”) in Eliezer’s reply. Both Eliezer and Holden engage with the example “Google Maps AGI”; I’m not sure what the difference is—if any—between “Google Maps AGI” and the sort of search/decision-support algorithms that Google Maps and other GPS systems currently use. The algorithm Holdon describes and the neat A* algorithm Eliezer presents seem to just do exactly what the GPS on my phone already does. If the Tool AI we’re discussing is different than current GPS systems, then what is the difference? Near as I understand it, AGI is intelligent across different domains in the same way a human is, while Tool AI (= narrow AI?) is the sort of simple-domain search algorithms we see in GPS. Am I missing something here?
But if what Holden is talking about by Tool AI is just this sort of simple(r), non-reflective search algorithm, then I understand why he thinks this is significantly less risky; GPS-style Tool AI only gets me lost when it screws up, instead of killing the whole human species. Sure, this tool is imperfect: sometimes it doesn’t match my utility function, and returns a route that leads me into traffic, or would take too long, or whatever; sometimes it doesn’t correctly model what’s actually going on, and thinks I’m on the wrong street. Even still, gradually building increasingly agentful Tool AIs—ones that take more of the optimization process away from the human user—seems like it would be much safer than just swinging for the fences right away.
So I think that Vaniver is right when he says that the heart of Holden’s Tool AI point is “Well, if AGI is such a tough problem, why even do it?”
This being said, I still think that Eliezer’s reply succeeds. I think his most important point is the one about specialization: AGI and Tool AI demand domain expertise to evaluate arguments about safety, and the best way to cultivate that expertise is with an organization that specializes in FAI-grade programmers. The analogy with the sort of optimal-charity work Holden specializes in was particularly weighty.
I see Eliezer’s response to Holden’s challenge—“why do AGI at all?”—as: “Because you need FAI-grade skills to know if you need to do AGI or not.” If AGI is an existential threat, and you need FAI-grade skills to know how to deal with that threat, then you need FAI-grade programmers.
(Though, I don’t know if “The world needs FAI-grade programmers, even if we just want to do Tool AI right now” carries through to “Invest in SIAI as a charity,” which is what Holden is ultimately interested in.)
This being said, I still think that Eliezer’s reply succeeds.
There are a number of different messages being conveyed here. I agree that it looks like a success for at least one of them, but I’m worried about others.
I see Eliezer’s response to Holden’s challenge—“why do AGI at all?”—as: “Because you need FAI-grade skills to know if you need to do AGI or not.”
I agree with you that that is Eliezer’s strongest point. I am worried that it takes five thousand words to get across: that speaks to clarity and concision, but Holden is the one to ask about what his central point was, and so my worry shouldn’t be stronger than my model of Holden.
Though, I don’t know if “The world needs FAI-grade programmers, even if we just want to do Tool AI right now” carries through to “Invest in SIAI as a charity,” which is what Holden is ultimately interested in.
Agreed- and it looks like that agrees with Holden’s ultimate recommendation, of “SI should probably be funded at some level, but its current level seems too high.”
This really gets at the heart of what intuitively struck me wrong (read: “confused me”) in Eliezer’s reply. Both Eliezer and Holden engage with the example “Google Maps AGI”; I’m not sure what the difference is—if any—between “Google Maps AGI” and the sort of search/decision-support algorithms that Google Maps and other GPS systems currently use. The algorithm Holdon describes and the neat A* algorithm Eliezer presents seem to just do exactly what the GPS on my phone already does. If the Tool AI we’re discussing is different than current GPS systems, then what is the difference? Near as I understand it, AGI is intelligent across different domains in the same way a human is, while Tool AI (= narrow AI?) is the sort of simple-domain search algorithms we see in GPS. Am I missing something here?
But if what Holden is talking about by Tool AI is just this sort of simple(r), non-reflective search algorithm, then I understand why he thinks this is significantly less risky; GPS-style Tool AI only gets me lost when it screws up, instead of killing the whole human species. Sure, this tool is imperfect: sometimes it doesn’t match my utility function, and returns a route that leads me into traffic, or would take too long, or whatever; sometimes it doesn’t correctly model what’s actually going on, and thinks I’m on the wrong street. Even still, gradually building increasingly agentful Tool AIs—ones that take more of the optimization process away from the human user—seems like it would be much safer than just swinging for the fences right away.
So I think that Vaniver is right when he says that the heart of Holden’s Tool AI point is “Well, if AGI is such a tough problem, why even do it?”
This being said, I still think that Eliezer’s reply succeeds. I think his most important point is the one about specialization: AGI and Tool AI demand domain expertise to evaluate arguments about safety, and the best way to cultivate that expertise is with an organization that specializes in FAI-grade programmers. The analogy with the sort of optimal-charity work Holden specializes in was particularly weighty.
I see Eliezer’s response to Holden’s challenge—“why do AGI at all?”—as: “Because you need FAI-grade skills to know if you need to do AGI or not.” If AGI is an existential threat, and you need FAI-grade skills to know how to deal with that threat, then you need FAI-grade programmers.
(Though, I don’t know if “The world needs FAI-grade programmers, even if we just want to do Tool AI right now” carries through to “Invest in SIAI as a charity,” which is what Holden is ultimately interested in.)
There are a number of different messages being conveyed here. I agree that it looks like a success for at least one of them, but I’m worried about others.
I agree with you that that is Eliezer’s strongest point. I am worried that it takes five thousand words to get across: that speaks to clarity and concision, but Holden is the one to ask about what his central point was, and so my worry shouldn’t be stronger than my model of Holden.
Agreed- and it looks like that agrees with Holden’s ultimate recommendation, of “SI should probably be funded at some level, but its current level seems too high.”