Okay, I might be late, but to test myself I will post my solution here before checking the right answer:
First I find the subset of recipes that produce a Barkskin potion. By examining this I find that they all need Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone. I make a subset of recipes with only the ingredients at hand AND using both Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone.
We now have two very manageable dataframes, 42 succesful and 152 unsuccessful recipes based on C.O and G.B. Looking at them I quickly realize that all the recipes have some chance of failure. Make a simple script to identify the unique recipes that worked, and figure out how often they failed. At last I am left with the best recipe, which is C.O, G.B, Demon Claw and Vampire Fang. This has produced the right potion 19 times and produced Inert Glob 10 times. So I rate it to have a 65% chance of success.
Then I go here to check my recipe, and whoops, the smarter people all seem to have figured out that I am actually being tricked into a Necromantic Power potion. Well, looks very convincing but too late for me. Better find a safe place to hide...
That is to say, I’m glad to have you playing, I enjoy seeing solutions even after scenarios are finished. (And I think you’re being a bit hard on yourself, I think simon is the only one who actually independently noticed the trick.)
Okay, I might be late, but to test myself I will post my solution here before checking the right answer:
First I find the subset of recipes that produce a Barkskin potion. By examining this I find that they all need Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone. I make a subset of recipes with only the ingredients at hand AND using both Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone.
We now have two very manageable dataframes, 42 succesful and 152 unsuccessful recipes based on C.O and G.B. Looking at them I quickly realize that all the recipes have some chance of failure. Make a simple script to identify the unique recipes that worked, and figure out how often they failed. At last I am left with the best recipe, which is C.O, G.B, Demon Claw and Vampire Fang. This has produced the right potion 19 times and produced Inert Glob 10 times. So I rate it to have a 65% chance of success.
Then I go here to check my recipe, and whoops, the smarter people all seem to have figured out that I am actually being tricked into a Necromantic Power potion. Well, looks very convincing but too late for me. Better find a safe place to hide...
MUWAHAHAHAHA! YOU FOOL!
ahem
That is to say, I’m glad to have you playing, I enjoy seeing solutions even after scenarios are finished. (And I think you’re being a bit hard on yourself, I think simon is the only one who actually independently noticed the trick.)