With the ingredients he has, he has gotten a successful Barkskin Potion:
1 of the 1 times (100%) he brewed together Crushed Onyx, Giant’s Toe, Ground Bone, Oaken Twigs, Redwood Sap, and Vampire Fang.
19 of the 29 times (66%) he brewed together Crushed Onyx, Demon Claw, Ground Bone, and Vampire Fang.
Only 2 other combinations of the in-stock ingredients have ever produced Barkskin Potion, both at under a 50% rate (4/10 and 18⁄75).
The 4-ingredient, 66% success rate potion looks like the best option if we’re just going to copy something that has worked. That’s what I’d recommend if I had to make the decision right now.
Many combinations that used currently-missing ingredients reliably (100%) produced Barkskin Potion many times (up to 118⁄118). There may be a variant on one of those, which he has never tried, that could work better than 66% of the time using ingredients that he has. Or there may be information in there about the reliability of the 6-ingredient combination which worked once.
Are you sure you are reading the dataset correctly? In particular, which row number do you think shows him brewing together Crushed Onyx, Redwood Sap, and Vampire Fang to yield a Barkskin Potion? I suspect you may be looking at row 118078 (or 118079 if you include the header row), in which he did brew a Barkskin Potion and did use those three ingredients—but he also used a Giant’s Toe, Ground Bone, and Oaken Twigs. Are you seeing something different in the dataset?
EDIT: Never mind, looks like you caught this and edited in your comment. Sorry for the bother, just wanted to make sure I hadn’t screwed up the upload in some way.
With the ingredients he has, he has gotten a successful Barkskin Potion:
1 of the 1 times (100%) he brewed together Crushed Onyx, Giant’s Toe, Ground Bone, Oaken Twigs, Redwood Sap, and Vampire Fang.
19 of the 29 times (66%) he brewed together Crushed Onyx, Demon Claw, Ground Bone, and Vampire Fang.
Only 2 other combinations of the in-stock ingredients have ever produced Barkskin Potion, both at under a 50% rate (4/10 and 18⁄75).
The 4-ingredient, 66% success rate potion looks like the best option if we’re just going to copy something that has worked. That’s what I’d recommend if I had to make the decision right now.
Many combinations that used currently-missing ingredients reliably (100%) produced Barkskin Potion many times (up to 118⁄118). There may be a variant on one of those, which he has never tried, that could work better than 66% of the time using ingredients that he has. Or there may be information in there about the reliability of the 6-ingredient combination which worked once.
Are you sure you are reading the dataset correctly? In particular, which row number do you think shows him brewing together Crushed Onyx, Redwood Sap, and Vampire Fang to yield a Barkskin Potion? I suspect you may be looking at row 118078 (or 118079 if you include the header row), in which he did brew a Barkskin Potion and did use those three ingredients—but he also used a Giant’s Toe, Ground Bone, and Oaken Twigs. Are you seeing something different in the dataset?
EDIT: Never mind, looks like you caught this and edited in your comment. Sorry for the bother, just wanted to make sure I hadn’t screwed up the upload in some way.