I think there are two fairly distinct questions: whether an organization is likely to rapidly become much more superintelligent than it is, and whether it is likely to do this without other organizations catching up. I mostly mean to ask about the first.
You mention several improvements an organization could make to their intelligence, however in an ‘intelligence explosion’ presumably there would be lots of improvements one after the other. I’m thinking of the kinds of things you mention, along with improving the nature of interactions and what individual humans do in the organization etc—there seem to be many possibilities. However I don’t mean to reason from the promisingness of any of these to the conclusion that there could be an organizational intelligence explosion. I rather mean to point out that the arguments for an AI intelligence explosion seems to apply just as well to other kinds of entity such as organizations, since they don’t seem make any reference to being a software agent. So if you (reasonably, I think) don’t expect human organizations to undergo an ‘intelligence explosion’ soon, you need a story about how the argument does apply to AI but doesn’t apply to organizations. I don’t think such stories are that hard to come by, but it is good to think about.
I think there are two fairly distinct questions: whether an organization is likely to rapidly become much more superintelligent than it is, and whether it is likely to do this without other organizations catching up. I mostly mean to ask about the first.
You mention several improvements an organization could make to their intelligence, however in an ‘intelligence explosion’ presumably there would be lots of improvements one after the other. I’m thinking of the kinds of things you mention, along with improving the nature of interactions and what individual humans do in the organization etc—there seem to be many possibilities. However I don’t mean to reason from the promisingness of any of these to the conclusion that there could be an organizational intelligence explosion. I rather mean to point out that the arguments for an AI intelligence explosion seems to apply just as well to other kinds of entity such as organizations, since they don’t seem make any reference to being a software agent. So if you (reasonably, I think) don’t expect human organizations to undergo an ‘intelligence explosion’ soon, you need a story about how the argument does apply to AI but doesn’t apply to organizations. I don’t think such stories are that hard to come by, but it is good to think about.