I built an (unpublished) TAI timelines model
I’d be excited to see this if it’s substantially different from existing published models. (Edit: yay, it’s https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ufbirCCLsFiscWuY/a-proposed-method-for-forecasting-ai)
I account for potential coordinated delays, catastrophes, and a 15% chance that we’re fundamentally wrong about all of this stuff.
+1 to noting this explicitly; everyone should distinguish between their conditional on no major disruptions and their unconditional models.
I’d be excited to see this if it’s substantially different from existing published models. (Edit: yay, it’s https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ufbirCCLsFiscWuY/a-proposed-method-for-forecasting-ai)
+1 to noting this explicitly; everyone should distinguish between their conditional on no major disruptions and their unconditional models.