These numbers were based on the TAI timelines model I built, which produced a highly skewed distribution. I also added several years to the timeline due to anticipated delays and unrelated catastrophes, and some chance that the model is totally wrong. My inside view prediction given no delays is more like a median of 2037 with a mode of 2029.
I agree it appears the mode is much too near, but I encourage you to build a model yourself. I think you might be surprised at how much sooner the mode can be compared to the median.
These numbers were based on the TAI timelines model I built, which produced a highly skewed distribution. I also added several years to the timeline due to anticipated delays and unrelated catastrophes, and some chance that the model is totally wrong. My inside view prediction given no delays is more like a median of 2037 with a mode of 2029.
I agree it appears the mode is much too near, but I encourage you to build a model yourself. I think you might be surprised at how much sooner the mode can be compared to the median.